Orange County Housing Summary

· INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 72 homes, and now stands at 4,982 (-1%). Last year, 4,869 homes were on the market, 113 fewer homes (-2%). The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,569, which is 32% higher. From January through August, 27% fewer homes came on the market than the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 8,010 fewer. There were 515 fewer than last year, 1,832 more than in 2024, and 4,604 more than in 2023. 

· DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 60 in the past two weeks and now stands at 1,468, down 4%. Last year, there were 1,591 pending sales, up 8%. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,363, which is 61% higher than today. 

· MARKET TIME: With the demand falling faster than supply, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, increased from 98 to 101 days in the past couple of weeks. Last year, it was 90 days, slightly faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 84 days, faster than today.

· LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million increased from 95 to 106 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 185 to 195 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 352 to 345 days.

· DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.4% of demand. Four foreclosures and eight short sales are available today in Orange County, bringing the total of distressed homes on the active market to 12, up one from two weeks ago. Last year, 12 distressed homes were on the market, the same as today.

· CLOSED SALES: There were 1,755 closed residential resales in August, down 6% from August 2025’s 1,875 sales, and down 9% from July 2026. Orange County's sales-to-list price ratio was 99.5%. Foreclosures accounted for 0.17% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.11%. That means that 99.72% of all sales were sellers with equity.

 The Orange County Housing Market is shifting into a measured fall pace with flat inventory and mortgage rates hovering near 7% 

For Buyers

• More      leverage: Slower pace and selective demand allow room for negotiation.      
• Condition      sensitivity: Well-maintained homes move fast; fixer-uppers sit longer.      
• Affordability:     Higher rates near 7% limit maximal purchasing power. 

For Sellers

• Precise      pricing: Overpriced homes risk sitting or expiring on the market.
• Presentation      counts: Buyers hesitate on homes needing heavy repairs.
• Steady      returns: Correctly priced listings still secure near-asking offers.

In August 2026, Orange County's housing market features rising inventory and stabilizing mortgage rates near 6.5%. The overall median home value sits around $1.19 million—up about 1.7% year-over-year—while active listings have climbed to a 2026 peak of over 5,100 units, giving buyers more room to negotiate. 

Housing Market Highlights

• Active      Inventory: Reached a 2026 high of 5,165 active listings, increasing      buyer selection across coastal and inland communities.
• Mortgage      Rates: Hovering in the mid-6% range (around 6.4% to 6.5%), spurring a      sharp uptick in local refinance and guarded buyer activity.
• Median      Home Values: Stable at roughly $1.19 million, reflecting a balanced      shift rather than major price drops.
• Days      on Market: Averaging 20 to 46 days depending on the specific      neighborhood and proper pricing strategy. 
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Commercial & Industrial Sectors

• Industrial      Market: Direct vacancy rests at 6.0% to 6.5% with asking rents      moderating slightly to an average of $1.45 PSF NNN.

Multifamily & Retail: Multifamily vacancy remains exceptionally tight at roughly 3.8% to 4.3% with modest rent growth near 1.1% ($2,800/month average). 

 Santa Ana August 2026 Market Summary

• Median Sale Price: $860,000 to $880,000 (up 5.3% to 7.6% year-over-year).
• Days on Market: Averaging 20 to 44 days, reflecting a balanced demand environment.
• Sale-to-List Ratio: Sitting at 100%, with buyers generally paying full asking price.
• Active Supply: Relatively tight with 300 to 440 homes listed for sale citywide.
• Average Rent: Hovers around $2,781 to $2,900 per month (1.4% annual growth).
• Rent Control Cap: Limited to 2.87% from September 1, 2026, through August 31, 2027.

The Orange County housing market in July 2026 entered a "lull phase" characterized by higher inventory, softening buyer demand, and a slower overall sales pace due to elevated mortgage rates. Countywide active listings rose to around 5,020 homes while pending sales dipped to 1,472, pushing the expected market time past 100 days. 

Orange County Housing Summary

• INVENTORY: The active listing      inventory in the past couple of weeks increased by 26 homes, up 1%, and      now stands at 5,046. Last year, there were 5,071 homes on the market, 25      additional homes, nearly the same as today. The 3-year average before      COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,753, which is 34% higher. From January through      July, 27% fewer homes came on the market than the 3-year average before      COVID (2017 to 2019), 6,899 fewer. There were 572 fewer than last year,      1,896 more than in 2024, and 4,332 more than in 2023. 

• DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales      over the prior month, increased by 22 in the past two weeks, up 1%, and      now stands at 1,494, its first rise since the start of May. Last year,      there were 1,604 pending sales, up 7%. The 3-year average before COVID      (2017 to 2019) was 2,630, which is 76% higher than today. 

• MARKET TIME: With the      inventory and demand rising at a similar pace, the      Expected Market Time, the number of days to      sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased      from 102 to 101 days in the past couple of weeks. Last      year, it was 95 days, slightly faster than today. The 3-year      average before COVID (2017-2019) was 78 days, faster than today.

• LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market      Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million decreased from      151 to 148 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the      Expected Market Time decreased from 191 to 188 days. For homes priced      above $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 341 to 276 days. 

• DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and      foreclosures combined comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.6% of      demand. Six foreclosures and four short sales are available today in      Orange County, bringing the total of distressed homes on the active market      to 10, up two from two weeks ago. Last year, 11 distressed homes were on      the market, similar to today.

• CLOSED SALES: There were 1,994 closed      residential resales in June, up 9% compared to June 2025’s 1,828 sales,  and up 10% from May 2026. The sales-to-list price ratio in Orange County      was 99.9%. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and short  sales accounted for 0.3%. That means that 99.7% of all sales were sellers   with equity.

 Orange County Housing Summary

• INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the      past couple of weeks increased by 76 homes, up 2%, and now stands at      4,551. Last year, there were 4,645 homes on the market, 94 additional      homes, or 2% more. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was      6,501, which is 43% higher. From January through May, 27% fewer homes came      on the market than the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 4,937      fewer. There were 489 fewer than last year, 1,556 more than in 2024, and      3,280 more than in 2023. 

• DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month,      decreased by 30 in the past two weeks, down 2%, and now stands at 1,637.      Demand peaked a month ago. Last year, there were 1,633 pending sales, nearly      unchanged. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,766,      which is 69% higher than today. 

• MARKET TIME: With the inventory rising and demand      falling, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange      County listings at the current buying pace, increased from 81 to 83 days      in the past couple of weeks. Last year, it was 85 days, similar to today.      The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 71 days, faster than      today.

• LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes      priced between $2.5 million and $4 million increased from 128 to 140 days.      For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market      Time increased from 177 to 229 days. For homes priced above $6 million,      the Expected Market Time decreased from 295 to 239 days. 

• DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined,      comprised only 0.3% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. Three foreclosures      and nine short sales are available today in Orange County, bringing the      total of distressed homes on the active market to nine, up three from 2      weeks ago. Last year, eight distressed homes were on the market, similar      to today.

• CLOSED SALES: There were 1,886 closed residential      resales in April, up 1% compared to April 2025’s 1,863 sales, and up 2%      from March 2026. The sales-to-list price ratio in Orange County was      100.0%. There were no foreclosures, and short sales accounted for 0.1% of      all closed sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were sellers with      equity.

The headline numbers in Orange County remain stable, but the data underneath is worth looking at more carefully this week. Inventory crossed 4,800 for the first time this cycle. Closed sales pulled back to 431 from 476 last week. The $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 segment, which has been the most active price range all spring, saw days on market tick up from 31 to 33. None of these shifts are dramatic individually, but they are moving in the same direction.

On the rate environment, there are two developments markets are watching closely. First, progress on a potential Iran nuclear agreement. If a deal is reached and sanctions are eased, more Iranian oil would come to market. Lower oil prices reduce energy costs, which cools inflation, which gives the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates. That chain of events does not happen overnight, but it is a real pathway to lower mortgage rates if the diplomatic track holds.

Second, there is meaningful political pressure building toward rate cuts heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Markets are already pricing in the possibility of Fed action later this year. A new Fed chair is expected to face that pressure directly. Whether cuts materialize or not, the expectation of lower rates can itself influence buyer behavior. Buyers who are waiting for rates to drop before purchasing may begin to act on the anticipation rather than the reality.

Some high-volume lenders are still marketing rates under 6% on purchases and refinances depending on loan program and buyer profile. If you are sitting on the sidelines based on rate assumptions, it is worth a direct conversation with a lender before making that decision. I can direct you to the lenders with the best discounts.

The OC market continues to hold. Homes under $2,500,000 are selling just slightly below asking for the second week, by $6,746 or 0.5%. That number has barely moved week over week, which suggests a market that has found a short-term equilibrium rather than one that is sliding.

The Orange County housing market is operating in a normalizing, yet competitive, environment with the county-wide median home price sitting at approximately $1.29 million. Inventory is rising to give buyers more breathing room, but homes in high-demand brackets are still selling quickly over asking price.

Current Market Dynamics

• Rising      Inventory: Active listings have seen an uptick over the last few      weeks, bringing the total to over 4,200 active listings. This provides      buyers with more options compared to the severe shortages seen earlier in the decade.
• Segment      Variations: The most competitive speed is seen in detached      single-family homes priced between $750,000\) and $1.5 million.      Conversely, the luxury tier (homes over $2.5 million is seeing properties      sell at discounts averaging about 5% below list price. 
• Market      Pace: The expected market time (days on market) is sitting around 80      days countywide, but highly desirable, well-priced properties in cities      like Santa Ana and Orange are routinely selling in 40–50 days, often      slightly above asking price. 
• For      Buyers: Although higher interest rates have tempered overall demand,      competition remains for prime listings. However, the rising inventory      means you do not have to settle as quickly and can negotiate more on      certain property types.
• For      Sellers: Pricing precision and home presentation matter immensely.      Overpricing your home can result in lingering on the market, as buyers      have more choices to compare against. 

Orange County Housing Summary

• INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the      past couple of weeks increased by 168 homes, up 4%, and now stands at      4,475. Last year, there were 4,595 homes on the market, 120 additional      homes, or 3% more. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was      6,370, which is 42% higher. From January through April, 25% fewer homes      came on the market than the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019),      3,530 fewer. There were 365 fewer than last year, 1,482 more than in 2024,      and 2,832 more than in 2023. 

• DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month,      decreased by 11 in the past two weeks, down 1%, and now stands at 1,667.      It appears demand peaked a couple of weeks ago. Last year, there were      1,621 pending sales, 3% fewer. The 3-year average before COVID      (2017 to 2019) was 2,765, which is 65% higher than today. 

• MARKET TIME: With the inventory rising and demand      falling, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange      County listings at the current buying pace, increased from 77 to 81 days      in the past couple of weeks. Last year, it was 85 days, similar to today.      The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 70 days, faster than      today.

• LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes      priced between $2.5 million and $4 million increased from 115 to 128 days.      For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market      Time increased from 142 to 177 days. For homes priced above $6 million,      the Expected Market Time increased from 281 to 295 days. 

• DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined,      comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.4% of demand. Three foreclosures      and six short sales are available today in Orange County, bringing the      total of distressed homes on the active market to nine, down one from 2      weeks ago. Last year, four distressed homes were on the market, similar to      today.

• CLOSED SALES: There were 1,886 closed residential      resales in April, up 1% compared to April 2025’s 1,863 sales, and up 2%      from March 2026. The sales-to-list price ratio in Orange County was      100.0%. There were no foreclosures, and short sales accounted for 0.1% of      all closed sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were sellers with      equity.

 As of March 2026, the Orange County housing market is transitioning into a more balanced spring environment, characterized by rising inventory and stabilized, yet high, home prices. The market has shifted away from the "frenzy" of previous years toward a more balanced state with increased choices for buyers 

Orange County Housing Summary

• INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the      past couple of weeks increased by 156 homes, up 4%, and now stands at      3,687. Last year, there were 3,419 homes on the market, 268 fewer homes,      or 7% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 5,100, which      is 38% higher. From January through February, 22% fewer homes came on the      market than the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,383 fewer.      There were 238 fewer than last year, 684 more than in 2024, and 1,331 more      than in 2023. 
• DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month,      increased by 97 in the past two weeks, up 6%, and now stands at 1,639.      Last year, there were 1,665 pending sales, 2% more than today. The      3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,429, which is 48% higher.      
• MARKET TIME: With demand increasing faster than      supply, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange      County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 69 to 67 days      in the past couple of weeks. Last year, it was 62 days, slightly faster than      today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 63 days, also      slightly quicker than today.
• LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes      priced between $2.5 million and $4 million decreased from 126 to 123 days.      For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market      Time decreased from 117 to 111 days. For homes priced above $6 million,      the Expected Market Time increased from 262 to 330 days.
• DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined,      comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. Two foreclosures      and five short sales are available today in Orange County, bringing the      total of distressed homes on the active market to seven, up three from two      weeks ago. Last year, four distressed homes were on the market, similar to      today.
• CLOSED SALES: There were 1,364 closed residential      resales in February, down 7% compared to February 2025’s 1,465 sales, and      up 12% from January 2026. The sales-to-list price ratio in Orange County      was 99.4%. Foreclosures accounted for 0.2% of all closed sales, and there      were no short sales. That means that 99.8% of all sales were sellers with      equity.

 Key Trends & Observations

• Shift Toward Balance: The market is no longer defined by extreme scarcity, as inventory has increased compared to early 2025.
• Active Buyers: Despite higher rates compared to the 2020–2021 period, demand remains steady for available inventory.
• Luxury Resilience: Coastal and new construction luxury properties remain in high demand with limited inventory supporting high values.
• Slowdown in Financing: Development and new multi-family construction projects are facing constraints due to financing costs.
• Market Forecast: The spring 2026 market is expected to have healthy transaction volumes with stable to slightly appreciating prices, assuming inventory continues its gradual rise.

 Market Segmentation

• Sellers: Benefit from continued low inventory compared to historical norms, but must price strategically due to increased buyer options.
• Buyers: Have more options than in previous years but still face affordability challenges, causing some to remain on the sidelines

As of early February 2026, the Orange County, California, real estate market is transitioning into a more balanced, "Goldilocks" phase—defined as neither too hot nor too cold—characterized by rising inventory, stable but high prices, and a more competitive environment for sellers. Here is a breakdown of the Orange County market for January 2026:

Market Overview (January 2026)

• Inventory Surge: Active inventory hit 3,062 homes by mid-January, marking the highest level for that period since 2020.
• Price Adjustments: While still high, median list prices saw slight decreases compared to December 2025, with about 22% of listings reducing their price, providing more options for buyers.
• Market Speed: Homes are selling in a median of 55 to 63 days, taking slightly longer than the previous year.
• Demand: Buyer demand is returning after the holiday season, with purchase applications rising by 12% in late January.
• Outlook: The market is shifting away from the extreme, low-inventory conditions of 2024–2025 toward a more sustainable, steady pace. 

Key Metrics

• Median List Price: Approximately $1.9 million (a slight dip from December 2025).
• Median Rent: Roughly $5,200/month.
• Inventory Levels: 3,062 active listings by mid-January 2026.
• Price Growth Forecast: Home prices are expected to continue rising, but at a more moderate 1%–4% pace in 2026. 

Trends for Buyers and Sellers

• Buyers: Have more leverage and selection than in recent years, with a 13% increase in inventory in the first three weeks of January.
• Sellers: Must focus on strategic pricing and proper presentation. The market is no longer rewarding high prices for average, un-staged homes.
• Interest Rates: 2026 is seeing a "melting" of the "lock-in effect" as rates stabilize around 6%, allowing for more inventory to come onto the market.

Orange County Housing Summary

· INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks increased by 117 homes, up 4%, and now stands at 3,179. Last year, there were 2,821 homes on the market, 358 fewer homes, or 11% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,695, which is 48% higher. In January, 15% fewer homes came on the market than the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 466 fewer. Only 43 more sellers came on the market this January compared to January of last year, 534 more than in 2024, and 878 more than in 2023. 

· DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, surged by 350 in the past two weeks, up 38%, and now stands at 1,264. Last year, there were 1,340 pending sales, 6% more than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,083, which is 65% higher. 

· MARKET TIME: With demand surging compared to the smaller rise in supply, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, plunged from 101 to 75 days in the past couple of weeks. Nonetheless, it is the highest end-of-January level since 2019. Last year, it was 63 days, faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 70 days, similar to today.

· LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million decreased from 145 to 117 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 249 to 170 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 365 to 267 days. 

· DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.1% of all listings and 0.5% of demand. Two foreclosures and two short sales are available today in Orange County, bringing the total of distressed homes on the active market to four, down two from two weeks ago. Last year, seven distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.

· CLOSED SALES: There were 1,641 closed residential resales in December, nearly identical to December 2024’s 1,634 sales, and up 10% from November 2025. The sales-to-list price ratio in Orange County was 98.0%. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.1%. That means that 99.8% of all sales were sellers with equity. 

The  Orange County housing market in December 2025 is experiencing a typical  seasonal slowdown with lower new listings, but active buyers are still  present, leading to a stable but cooling market with flat-to-modest  price growth (median around $1.17M, up slightly YoY) and slightly longer  days on market, while interest rates remain in the low 6s, with  investor activity picking up in multifamily due to new tax incentives. 

Key Takeaways for December 2025:

• Seasonal Shift: The market is slowing down for winter, with fewer sellers listing homes  and a general cooling trend after a busy late summer/fall.
• Inventory: Active listings dropped as sellers paused, but demand is still present, keeping inventory from skyrocketing.
• Prices: Median prices are stable around $1.17M, showing minimal year-over-year  growth (around 1.3%), with homes selling for slightly below list price  (around 97.2%).
• Interest Rates: Rates are steady in the low 6s, with a slight downward trend expected into 2026.
• Buyer Activity: Despite fewer homes, buyers are still closing deals, though properties are sitting a bit longer (around 42 days on market).
• Investor Interest: Multifamily properties are seeing increased investor interest due to  new tax benefits (like 100% bonus depreciation) and rising cap rates. 

What to Watch For:

• The market is shifting to a more typical winter pattern, not necessarily a downturn.
• Expect demand to pick up again in the spring home buying season.
• While overall prices are stable, hot listings still sell fast
• Industrial property vacancy rates are rising slightly, with decreasing lease rates in some areas  

Orange County Housing Summary

· INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 98 homes, down 2%, and now stands at 4,478. Last year, there were 3,694 homes on the market, 784 fewer homes, or 18% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 6,306, which is 41% higher. From January through September, 26% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019), 8,347 less. Yet, 2,221 more sellers came on the market this year than last, and 5,333 more compared to 2023. 

· DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 18 homes, up 1%, and now stands at 1,609, its highest level since the end of March. Last year, there were 1,591 pending sales, 3% lower than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 2,262, which is 41% higher. 

· MARKET TIME: With inventory and demand falling at a similar pace, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, remained unchanged at 86 days in the past couple of weeks. It is the highest October level since 2019. Last year, it was 69 days, slightly faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 87 days, similar to today.

· LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million increased from 148 to 151 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 188 to 183 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 334 to 431 days. 

· DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.3% of demand. Only four foreclosures and three short sales are available today in Orange County, with a total of seven distressed homes on the active market, down one from two weeks ago. Last year, five distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.

· CLOSED SALES: There were 1,805 closed residential resales in September, 11% higher than September 2024’s 1,622 sales, but down 4% from August 2025. The sales-to-list price ratio was 97.8% for Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.2% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.8% of all sales were sellers with equity.

In September 2025, the Orange County housing market showed a trend toward a more balanced market, marked by declining inventory, rising pending sales, and steady but slower closings. While demand is increasing with a rise in pending sales, the number of days to sell increased to around 90-94 days, which is slower than 2024 but still far from distressed. Seller pricing strategies are crucial, and the market is seeing a continued strength in the luxury segment. 

Key market trends

• Inventory is tightening: Active listings dropped to 4,758 by late September 2025, the lowest since June and a 22% increase from last year, but still below the pre-COVID average.
• Demand is increasing: Pending sales were up 2% in the last two weeks of September, reaching the highest level for the month since 2022.
• Market time is increasing: Days on market rose to an average of 90-94 days, the slowest pace since 2018, though this is still considered "normal" compared to distressed periods.
• Closings are steady: August sales were nearly identical to last year, with a slight year-over-year increase in closed detached home sales.
• Luxury market is strong: Around 68 properties sold for over $2 million during the week of September 29, 2025, demonstrating continued strength in the high-end segment.
• Seller pricing is critical: With lower competition, sellers need to price their homes accurately to stand out.
• Buyers are navigating challenges: Affordability remains a key challenge, but lower rates are creating opportunities, especially for well-prepared buyers. 

Orange County Housing Summary

· INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 98 homes, down 2%, and now stands at 4,478. Last year, there were 3,694 homes on the market, 784 fewer homes, or 18% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 6,306, which is 41% higher. From January through September, 26% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019), 8,347 less. Yet, 2,221 more sellers came on the market this year than last, and 5,333 more compared to 2023. 

· DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 18 homes, up 1%, and now stands at 1,609, its highest level since the end of March. Last year, there were 1,591 pending sales, 3% lower than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 2,262, which is 41% higher. 

· MARKET TIME: With inventory and demand falling at a similar pace, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, remained unchanged at 86 days in the past couple of weeks. It is the highest October level since 2019. Last year, it was 69 days, slightly faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 87 days, similar to today.

· LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million increased from 148 to 151 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 188 to 183 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 334 to 431 days. 

· DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.3% of demand. Only four foreclosures and three short sales are available today in Orange County, with a total of seven distressed homes on the active market, down one from two weeks ago. Last year, five distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.

· CLOSED SALES: There were 1,805 closed residential resales in September, 11% higher than September 2024’s 1,622 sales, but down 4% from August 2025. The sales-to-list price ratio was 97.8% for Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.2% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.8% of all sales were sellers with equity.

Market Briefs _ Aug/Sep 2025

9/22/2225

In August 2025, Orange County's real estate market is balanced but leaning towards buyers as demand softens and inventory increases modestly, with sellers needing to focus on pricing and presentation while buyers benefit from more options. More listings are appearing, providing more choices for buyers, though the market remains competitive and resilient. 

Market Overview

• Shift in Balance: The market is shifting from being heavily seller-focused to a more balanced environment, with a slight tilt towards buyers. 
• Rising Inventory: There's a modest increase in the number of homes on the market, providing more choices for potential buyers. 
• Softening Demand: Buyer's demand is easing, contributing to the more balanced market conditions. 

Advice for Sellers

• Strategic Pricing: Sellers should focus on pricing their homes competitively to attract buyers in the current market. 
• Presentation: Home presentation remains crucial to stand out among the growing number of available listings. 

Advice for Buyers

• Increased Options: Buyers have more choices and potentially better opportunities to find a suitable home. 
• Mortgage Rates: Buyers may find it beneficial to take advantage of the increased options, especially if mortgage rates continue to fall.

MARKET IN NUMBERS

• INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 111 homes, down 2%, and now stands at 4,758, its second largest drop of the year. After peaking on July 31", the inventory has continued to descend slowly. Last year, there were 3,695 homes on the market, 1,063 fewer homes, or 22% less. The 3•year average before COVIO (2017-2019) was 6,520, which is 37% higher. From January through August, 26% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019), 7,561 less. Yet, 2,281 more sellers came on the market this year than last, and 5,053 more compared to 2023.

• DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 32 homes, up 2%, and now stands at 1,591. Last year, there were 1,413 pending sales, 11% lower than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 2,363, which is 49% higher.

MARKET TIME: With inventory falling and demand rising, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 94 to 90 days in the past couple of weeks. its lowest level since June. Yet, it is still the highest mid-September level since 2018. Last year, it was 78 days, slightly faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID {2017-2019) was 84 days, which is also a bit quicker than today.

LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million decreased from 196 to 163 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 221 to 224 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 540 to 447 days.

• DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. Only six foreclosures and three short sales are available today in Orange County, with a total of nine distressed homes on the active market. up two from two weeks ago. Last year, seven distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.

CLOSED SALES: There were 1,875 closed residential resales in August, nearly identical to August 2024's 1,877 sales, and down 3% from July 2025. The sales· to-list price ratio was 98.5% for Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.2% of all closed sales. and short sales accounted for 0.1%. That means that 99.7% of all sales were sellers with equity 

Orange County Housing Report: No Detectable Plunge

December 9, 2024

Housing data demonstrates that a significant drop in home values are not on the horizon despite the current market slowdown.

A Low Historical Supply

With a limited inventory and over a decade of tight lending standards, housing values will not plunge as they did during the Great Recession. 

A surprising 44% of Americans thought the housing market would crash and values would plunge, according to a LendingTree survey conducted at the end of last year. A shocking 52% of millennials believed in a 2024 crash. The same study was conducted at the end of 2022, and 41% of Americans thought housing values would nosedive in 2023. The market did not collapse in either 2023 or 2024. How could so many convinced Americans get it wrong? 

The Great Recession was a painful downturn for housing. So many homeowners were burned as values cratered and equity evaporated seemingly overnight. Everyone was affected by it personally or they knew someone who was painfully impacted and left with nothing. It was the most devastating period for housing since the Great Depression. As a result, the immediate knee-jerk response to any slowdown in housing is that values will tumble once again like they did during the Great Recession. 

In 2018, when rates climbed from 4% to 5%, many believed that housing values would plunge. At the beginning of COVID, when the economy came to a screeching halt and many homeowners entered forbearance, the market was expected to tilt heavily in the buyer’s favor. And, when the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate eleven times between March 2022 and July 2023, the housing bubble was supposed to pop. Yet, that did not occur. 

There are many reasons that housing has not crashed over the years despite the continued sentiment that it was inevitable. There will not be a plunge in home values because there are simply not enough available homes to purchase. Today’s inventory is at 3,044 homes. While there are 40% more homes this year compared to last year, the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,988, 64% more than today. 

The inventory has been stuck at anemic levels since the beginning of the pandemic. The difference is striking when comparing today’s supply to the two years leading up to the Great Recession, 2006 and 2007. The inventory peaked at 16,006 homes in 2006, and 17,898 in 2007. The 2023 peak was 2,496, and in 2024, it was 3,695. The inventory has remained at very low, anemic levels compared to the glut of available homes leading up to the Great Recession. The 3-year average peak prior to the pandemic was nearly 7,000, still considerably lower than the levels reached in 2006 and 2007.

In 2006, as demand plummeted and the inventory ballooned, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, based upon supply and demand) climbed to over 200 days. In 2007, when demand dropped even further, the Expected Market Time skyrocketed to over 400 days. When housing is severely out of balance, which it was prior to and during the Great Recession, values plunge. 

Since the Federal Reserve raised the short-term rate, demand has plummeted to levels that rival the Great Recession. They have remained low since the second half of 2022. Yet, that low demand has been matched up against very little supply. Today’s Expected Market Time is 70 days, a far cry from 2006’s over 200 days and 2007’s over 400. 

Even in today’s high mortgage rate environment, values have risen year-over-year. According to Freddie Mac’s House Price Index, the Los Angeles/Orange County metro has grown by 6% year-over-year through October. In 2023, home values rose by 8%. The low inventory has continued to place pressure on prices and has not allowed values to plunge despite severe affordability constraints. 

Today’s United States housing stock is the strongest ever. Ever since the Great Recession, buyers have been purchasing homes with strict qualifications, strong credit, great jobs, and low fixed payments. There is record tappable equity (the amount of equity a homeowner can use for a loan while still retaining 20% equity), record equity rich (50% plus equity), and a record number of homeowners who own their home free-and-clear. There will be no housing crash because of the strength of the homeowner and the limited supply of homes available to purchase.  

Active Listings

The inventory plunged by 9% in the past couple of weeks.

The active listing inventory decreased by 314 homes in the past two weeks, down 9%, and now sits at 3,044, its lowest level since the start of June. It was the largest drop so far this year. The inventory cyclically plunges during the Holiday Market. December is home to the fewest number of homes placed on the market and the greatest number of sellers who throw in the towel and pull their homes off the market due to a lack of success so that they can enjoy the holidays and wait for a better season to sell. Expect the inventory to continue to sink until ringing in a New Year.

Last year, the inventory was at 2,180 homes, 28% lower, or 864 fewer. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 through 2019) was 4,988, an additional 1,944 homes, or 64% more. 

Homeowners continue to “hunker down” in their homes, unwilling to move due to their current underlying, locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgage. It became a crisis once rates skyrocketed higher in 2022. For November, 1,541 new sellers entered the market in Orange County, 713 fewer than the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 32% less. Last November, there were 1,494 new sellers, 3% fewer than this year. More sellers are opting to sell compared to the previous year. 

Demand
 

Demand dipped by 4% in the past couple of weeks. 

Demand, a snapshot of the number of new pending sales over the prior month, decreased from 1,363 to 1,310 in the past couple of weeks, down 53 pending sales, or 4%, its lowest level since the start of February. While demand is continuing its seasonal drop until the New Year, it remains elevated compared to last year. Last year, rates were higher from September through December. Today’s better mortgage rate environment has paved the way for slightly higher demand, 18% higher or an extra 197 pending sales. 

As the Federal Reserve has indicated, watching all economic releases for signs of slowing is essential. These releases can potentially move mortgage rates higher or lower, depending on how they compare to market expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index will be released on Thursday, two closely watched inflation gauges that can impact mortgage rates.

Last year, demand was 1,113, 197 fewer pending sales or 15% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 1,774 pending sales, 35% more than today, or an additional 464.

With supply falling faster than demand, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace) decreased from 74 to 70 days in the past couple of weeks. Last year, it was 59 days, faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID was 87 days, slower than today.

Luxury End

The luxury market slowed slightly in the past couple of weeks. 

In the past couple of weeks, the luxury inventory of homes priced above $2 million (the top 10% of the Orange County housing market) decreased from 1,096 to 991 homes, down 105 or 10%. Luxury demand decreased by 31 pending sales, down 13%, and now sits at 207. With demand rising and the supply falling, the Expected Market Time for luxury homes priced above $2 million increased from 138 to 144 days. The luxury market has improved over the last couple of months due to the stock market reaching record levels.

Year over year, the active luxury inventory is up by 246 homes or 33%, and luxury demand is up by 74 pending sales or 56%. Last year’s Expected Market Time was 168 days, slower than today.

In the past two weeks, the expected market time for homes priced between $2 million and $4 million decreased from 104 to 76 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 182 to 106 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 359 to 380 days. At 380 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around December 2025.  

Orange County Housing Summary

· The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks plunged by 314 homes, down 9%, and now sits at 3,044, its lowest level since the start of June and its largest drop of the year. In November, 32% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 713 less. Yet, 47 more sellers came on the market this November compared to November 2023. Last year, there were 2,180 homes on the market, 864 fewer homes, or 28% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,988, or 64% extra.

· Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 53 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 4%, and now totals 1,310. Last year, there were 1,113 pending sales, 15% fewer. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 1,774, or 35% more.

· With supply falling faster than demand, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 74 to 70 days in the past couple of weeks. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 87 days, slower than today.

· In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced below $750,000 increased from 57 to 58 days. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 23% of demand. 

· The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million decreased from 60 to 49 days. This range represents 15% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.

· The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1 million and $1.25 million decreased from 47 to 45 days. This range represents 9% of the active inventory and 14% of demand.

· The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million decreased from 57 to 45 days. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 13% of demand.

· The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million decreased from 91 to 56 days. This range represents 14% of the active inventory and 12% of demand.

· In the past two weeks, the expected market time for homes priced between $2 million and $4 million decreased from 104 to 76 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 182 to 106 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 359 to 380 days. 

· The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 30% of the inventory and 16% of demand.

· Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. Only four foreclosures and two short sales are available today in Orange County, with six total distressed homes on the active market, unchanged from two weeks ago. Last year, six distressed homes were on the market, identical to today.

· There were 1,842 closed residential resales in October, up 13% compared to October 2023’s 1,632 and up 14% from September 2024. The sales-to-list price ratio was 100.0% for Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Orange County Housing Report: No Detectable Plunge

December 9, 2024

Housing data demonstrates that a significant drop in home values are not on the horizon despite the current market slowdown.

A Low Historical Supply

With a limited inventory and over a decade of tight lending standards, housing values will not plunge as they did during the Great Recession. 

A surprising 44% of Americans thought the housing market would crash and values would plunge, according to a LendingTree survey conducted at the end of last year. A shocking 52% of millennials believed in a 2024 crash. The same study was conducted at the end of 2022, and 41% of Americans thought housing values would nosedive in 2023. The market did not collapse in either 2023 or 2024. How could so many convinced Americans get it wrong? 

The Great Recession was a painful downturn for housing. So many homeowners were burned as values cratered and equity evaporated seemingly overnight. Everyone was affected by it personally or they knew someone who was painfully impacted and left with nothing. It was the most devastating period for housing since the Great Depression. As a result, the immediate knee-jerk response to any slowdown in housing is that values will tumble once again like they did during the Great Recession. 

In 2018, when rates climbed from 4% to 5%, many believed that housing values would plunge. At the beginning of COVID, when the economy came to a screeching halt and many homeowners entered forbearance, the market was expected to tilt heavily in the buyer’s favor. And, when the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate eleven times between March 2022 and July 2023, the housing bubble was supposed to pop. Yet, that did not occur. 

There are many reasons that housing has not crashed over the years despite the continued sentiment that it was inevitable. There will not be a plunge in home values because there are simply not enough available homes to purchase. Today’s inventory is at 3,044 homes. While there are 40% more homes this year compared to last year, the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,988, 64% more than today. 

The inventory has been stuck at anemic levels since the beginning of the pandemic. The difference is striking when comparing today’s supply to the two years leading up to the Great Recession, 2006 and 2007. The inventory peaked at 16,006 homes in 2006, and 17,898 in 2007. The 2023 peak was 2,496, and in 2024, it was 3,695. The inventory has remained at very low, anemic levels compared to the glut of available homes leading up to the Great Recession. The 3-year average peak prior to the pandemic was nearly 7,000, still considerably lower than the levels reached in 2006 and 2007.

In 2006, as demand plummeted and the inventory ballooned, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, based upon supply and demand) climbed to over 200 days. In 2007, when demand dropped even further, the Expected Market Time skyrocketed to over 400 days. When housing is severely out of balance, which it was prior to and during the Great Recession, values plunge. 

Since the Federal Reserve raised the short-term rate, demand has plummeted to levels that rival the Great Recession. They have remained low since the second half of 2022. Yet, that low demand has been matched up against very little supply. Today’s Expected Market Time is 70 days, a far cry from 2006’s over 200 days and 2007’s over 400. 

Even in today’s high mortgage rate environment, values have risen year-over-year. According to Freddie Mac’s House Price Index, the Los Angeles/Orange County metro has grown by 6% year-over-year through October. In 2023, home values rose by 8%. The low inventory has continued to place pressure on prices and has not allowed values to plunge despite severe affordability constraints. 

Today’s United States housing stock is the strongest ever. Ever since the Great Recession, buyers have been purchasing homes with strict qualifications, strong credit, great jobs, and low fixed payments. There is record tappable equity (the amount of equity a homeowner can use for a loan while still retaining 20% equity), record equity rich (50% plus equity), and a record number of homeowners who own their home free-and-clear. There will be no housing crash because of the strength of the homeowner and the limited supply of homes available to purchase.  

Active Listings

The inventory plunged by 9% in the past couple of weeks.

The active listing inventory decreased by 314 homes in the past two weeks, down 9%, and now sits at 3,044, its lowest level since the start of June. It was the largest drop so far this year. The inventory cyclically plunges during the Holiday Market. December is home to the fewest number of homes placed on the market and the greatest number of sellers who throw in the towel and pull their homes off the market due to a lack of success so that they can enjoy the holidays and wait for a better season to sell. Expect the inventory to continue to sink until ringing in a New Year.

Last year, the inventory was at 2,180 homes, 28% lower, or 864 fewer. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 through 2019) was 4,988, an additional 1,944 homes, or 64% more. 

Homeowners continue to “hunker down” in their homes, unwilling to move due to their current underlying, locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgage. It became a crisis once rates skyrocketed higher in 2022. For November, 1,541 new sellers entered the market in Orange County, 713 fewer than the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 32% less. Last November, there were 1,494 new sellers, 3% fewer than this year. More sellers are opting to sell compared to the previous year. 

Demand
 

Demand dipped by 4% in the past couple of weeks. 

Demand, a snapshot of the number of new pending sales over the prior month, decreased from 1,363 to 1,310 in the past couple of weeks, down 53 pending sales, or 4%, its lowest level since the start of February. While demand is continuing its seasonal drop until the New Year, it remains elevated compared to last year. Last year, rates were higher from September through December. Today’s better mortgage rate environment has paved the way for slightly higher demand, 18% higher or an extra 197 pending sales. 

As the Federal Reserve has indicated, watching all economic releases for signs of slowing is essential. These releases can potentially move mortgage rates higher or lower, depending on how they compare to market expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index will be released on Thursday, two closely watched inflation gauges that can impact mortgage rates.

Last year, demand was 1,113, 197 fewer pending sales or 15% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 1,774 pending sales, 35% more than today, or an additional 464.

With supply falling faster than demand, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace) decreased from 74 to 70 days in the past couple of weeks. Last year, it was 59 days, faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID was 87 days, slower than today.

Luxury End

The luxury market slowed slightly in the past couple of weeks. 

In the past couple of weeks, the luxury inventory of homes priced above $2 million (the top 10% of the Orange County housing market) decreased from 1,096 to 991 homes, down 105 or 10%. Luxury demand decreased by 31 pending sales, down 13%, and now sits at 207. With demand rising and the supply falling, the Expected Market Time for luxury homes priced above $2 million increased from 138 to 144 days. The luxury market has improved over the last couple of months due to the stock market reaching record levels.

Year over year, the active luxury inventory is up by 246 homes or 33%, and luxury demand is up by 74 pending sales or 56%. Last year’s Expected Market Time was 168 days, slower than today.

In the past two weeks, the expected market time for homes priced between $2 million and $4 million decreased from 104 to 76 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 182 to 106 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 359 to 380 days. At 380 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around December 2025.  

Orange County Housing Summary

· The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks plunged by 314 homes, down 9%, and now sits at 3,044, its lowest level since the start of June and its largest drop of the year. In November, 32% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 713 less. Yet, 47 more sellers came on the market this November compared to November 2023. Last year, there were 2,180 homes on the market, 864 fewer homes, or 28% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,988, or 64% extra.

· Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 53 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 4%, and now totals 1,310. Last year, there were 1,113 pending sales, 15% fewer. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 1,774, or 35% more.

· With supply falling faster than demand, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 74 to 70 days in the past couple of weeks. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 87 days, slower than today.

· In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced below $750,000 increased from 57 to 58 days. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 23% of demand. 

· The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million decreased from 60 to 49 days. This range represents 15% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.

· The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1 million and $1.25 million decreased from 47 to 45 days. This range represents 9% of the active inventory and 14% of demand.

· The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million decreased from 57 to 45 days. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 13% of demand.

· The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million decreased from 91 to 56 days. This range represents 14% of the active inventory and 12% of demand.

· In the past two weeks, the expected market time for homes priced between $2 million and $4 million decreased from 104 to 76 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 182 to 106 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 359 to 380 days. 

· The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 30% of the inventory and 16% of demand.

· Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. Only four foreclosures and two short sales are available today in Orange County, with six total distressed homes on the active market, unchanged from two weeks ago. Last year, six distressed homes were on the market, identical to today.

· There were 1,842 closed residential resales in October, up 13% compared to October 2023’s 1,632 and up 14% from September 2024. The sales-to-list price ratio was 100.0% for Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.